Quantum Computing Threat: Why Current Encryption May Soon Be Obsolete

Key Takeaways

  • Quantum computing could break current encryption within 5-10 years
  • Thailand’s SEC warns quantum risk is “no longer a distant concern”
  • SMEs face financial challenges upgrading to quantum-safe security
  • Global tech giants are racing to develop quantum technology

Regulatory agencies are urging organizations to prepare for quantum computing risks that could make current cybersecurity obsolete. Thailand’s Securities and Exchange Commission has issued warnings about this imminent threat to global data security.

Not a Distant Concern

Earlier this month, Thailand’s SEC cautioned that quantum computing could soon render traditional encryption systems obsolete, exposing sensitive financial and personal data to theft. “Quantum risk is no longer a distant concern,” the regulator stated, calling for immediate transition planning.

“Once quantum computers become commercially viable, encryption methods that are not quantum-safe could be easily broken, leaving even the most secure networks as vulnerable as unlocked safes,” the SEC warned.

Organizations are advised to begin data risk assessments immediately and evaluate security shelf life for different datasets.

Crypto Alert: 5-10 Year Threat Window

Tanawat Sununtivorakoon, CEO of Bitazza Thailand, warned that quantum computing could become a serious cybersecurity threat within 5-10 years, particularly for financial sectors. While current systems operate at 1,000-1,200 qubits, they still struggle with quantum error correction.

“This is not currently a threat, but once quantum computing becomes more powerful, it could reach a level where encryption can be broken,” said Mr Tanawat.

He recommended establishing dedicated cybersecurity teams, conducting annual assessments, and implementing post-quantum cryptography (PQC) and quantum-resistant protocols.

Quick Transition Needed

The National Cyber Security Agency (NCSA) warned about “harvest now, decrypt later” attacks where encrypted data is stolen today for future decryption. Thailand aims for complete PQC adoption by critical infrastructure organizations by 2030.

AVM Amorn Chomchoey, NCSA secretary-general, said Thailand is systematically preparing under its “Research for Future Readiness” framework and called for ASEAN collaboration on quantum readiness.

Anothai Wettayakorn of IBM Thailand confirmed quantum-safe solutions exist now to protect against future threats. “The good news is such a powerful quantum computer does not exist now, and will not for years,” he said.

Cost Concerns for SMEs

Sangchai Theerakulwanich, president of the Federation of Thai SMEs, expressed concerns about the financial burden on small businesses. “The business sector can’t avoid the additional costs required by upgrading security systems,” he said.

He suggested soft loans for quantum-resistant IT infrastructure, warning that without assistance, SMEs will lag behind larger companies, widening the digital divide. Thailand currently ranks 55th of 69 economies in cybersecurity capacity.

Global Race Accelerates

Major tech companies are advancing quantum technology rapidly. IBM recently built its experimental Loon chip, Microsoft is expanding its quantum facility in Denmark, and Google developed the Quantum Echoes algorithm that runs 13,000 times faster than traditional computing.

According to Gartner, nation-state actors could break digital signatures by 2030, making immediate preparation essential. The transition to PQC is a multi-year journey that requires starting now.

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