From “Bihari dacoit” to “joker”, and “chameleon” to “turncoat”, Prashant Kishor has been called everything. But what opponents and rivals across parties can agree on is one thing. PK is being seen as a disruptor, or, at least, a “factor”. With Bihar heading into the high-stakes Assembly election, debutant Prashant Kishor’s young Jan Suraaj, has emerged as a credible third front in a state long defined by identity politics. While a confident PK has at times insisted that Jan Suraaj will sweep the high-stakes polls, the big question is, will this “political startup” shake up Bihar’s turf or simply cut the votes?
What are the pre-poll surveys suggesting about Prashant Kishor and his Jan Suraaj?
Prashant Kishor (PK) has gone as far as claiming that Jan Suraaj will win a majority in the 243-member Bihar Assembly. The poll strategist-turned-politician, who says his party will come “first”, had once said in an interview, “We’ll either be first or last. There’s no middle ground in this election”.
Pre-poll surveys in Bihar suggest he might just land somewhere in between. At least two credible surveys India Today Digital looked at indicate that PK and his Jan Suraaj might end up occupying the middle spot. Will the Bihar polls prove the ace strategist wrong?
Voting for the Bihar Assembly election will be held in two phases on November 6 and 11, and the results will be declared on November 14, Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar said on Monday. The term of the Bihar Assembly will end on November 22.
PK SET TO CONTEST BIHAR POLLS AS JAN SURAAJ’S DEBUTS
After months of speculation, poll strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor (PK) has confirmed that he will step into the electoral fray in Bihar.
Though Jan Suraaj had fielded four candidates in Bihar Assembly bypollsmonths ago, and all four lost, the Bihar Assembly election 2025 will be PK’s and Jan Suraaj’s first real test.
He had previously announced that his Jan Suraaj, planned to field candidates in all 243 Assembly constituencies. The party will release its list of candidates, which it said would be “full of surprises”, and will have the name of PK, on October 9.
Experts and on-ground journalists observe that Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj is making inroads with youth, upper-caste communities, the middle class, and educated voters. To others, it’s “oo pilka-wala-naika party”.
Irrespective, Biharis are now aware of a new player in the fray, thanks to PK’s 665-day-long padyatra covering 2,697 villages, 1,319 panchayats, and 235 blocks across Bihar.
Last week, a Siwan-based YouTuber had to clarify to his followers that after he and his friends donated food at various Durga Puja fairs near his village, donning yellow scarfs and gamcha. “It’s a holy colour, and we did the good deed out of devotion,” he said.
“PK has already emerged as a third force in Bihar, as far as traction and narrative are concerned. He has made all the noise, but the critical question remains whether he can convert this visibility into actual votes. I have my doubts,” C-Voter founder Yashwant Deshmukh told India Today TV.
PK NEAR TOP IN CM RACE; JAN SURAAJ SEEN AS VOTE SPLITTER: SURVEYS
A C-Voter survey released last week placed PK second (23.1%) on the list of most preferred CM faces. He was second to RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav (35.5%) but ahead of incumbent CM and JDU leader, Nitish Kumar (23%), and way ahead of the latter’s deputy, Samrat Chaudhry.
Interestingly, PK’s popularity graph as the “most preferred CM face” has been on a steady rise. From 15% in February to 18% in June, and it was at 23% in September.
Will the people of Bihar vote for him and the Jan Suraaj, is probably the inevitable question.
In the Vote Vibe’s State Vibe Bihar Elections survey, 56% of respondents saw Jan Suraaj primarily as a “vote-cutter”. However, of the remaining 44%, about 8.4% believed PK could become the chief minister, while 15.8% felt Jan Suraaj might play kingmaker if the November election throws up a hung Assembly.
The survey also noted that older voters in Bihar are more sceptical of the PK-led party, while younger people believe he is doing well. Upper Caste Hindus see the highest potential for the kingmaker role (23.0%), it said.
Last week, political commentator Amitabh Tiwari, writing for India Today, noted that in the 2020 Bihar Assembly polls, Chirag Paswan’s LJP acted as a vote-cutter; this time, that role could be taken over by Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj.
He, however, warned that “electoral outcomes will likely depend on micro-level factors rather than broad sentiment waves, where the role of the candidate becomes very important”.
The bottom line is that pre-poll surveys indicate Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj will not be sweeping the Bihar Assembly election, but it will not get sidelined either. Most see it as a vote-cutter, while a notable section believes it might play a role in who get to form the next government either by pushing PK as CM or acting as kingmaker. PK’s rising appeal among younger voters signals growing traction. As Bihar heads to the polls, all eyes will be on whether Jan Suraaj disrupts the race or becomes a decider. And if politician PK can prove strategist PK wrong.
