It’s been a month since the first wave of missiles rained down on Tehran, wiping out its Supreme Leader and the country’s leadership, as the US and Israel sought to bring about regime change in Iran. The planning had been on for months. But, within a few days, the US and Israel realised that they were up against an opponent that had proved itself to be more resilient and disruptive than Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu had thought. Despite being pounded by Tomahawks, bunker busters and whatnot, Iran has tormented the Gulf countries via a swarm of low-cost missiles and drones and maintained a stranglehold on the world’s energy supplies by blocking the Strait of Hormuz.
With oil prices jumping by more than 40%, Trump had to eventually veer towards negotiations, and paused strikes on Iran’s power plants for 10 days till April 6. A decimated but buoyant Iran, which has repeatedly stressed that the war would end on its terms, has also opened backchannel talks for a ceasefire. But beneath the calm lies the spectre of a US ground invasion, with thousands of Marines and paratroopers nearing the Middle East.
Thus, a month on, the status of the war remains fluid. Here’s a recap of how the conflict reached this stage.
HOW THE IRAN WAR STARTED?
The first 24 hours of the conflict saw US and Israeli forces striking over 1,500 targets in Iran. The assumption was simple: hit Iran hard, fast, and the country would collapse on its own. Trump and Netanyahu even goaded the Iranian people, who protested against the theocratic regime in January, to take back the country. “It is the single greatest chance,” Trump said in his usual chest-thumping style on February 28. However, there have been no signs of any such uprising.
The first wave of strikes killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the IRGC commander, and Iran’s defence minister. However, the death of 175 people, mostly schoolgirls, in a missile attack on a primary school in Iran’s Minab triggered worldwide condemnation. A probe later revealed it to be a “targeting error” by the US military.
Iran retaliated by pounding its neighbours in the Gulf hosting US military bases with missiles and drones. In the first 100 hours of the war, Iran unleashed more than 500 missiles and over 2,000 Shahed drones, which have become the backbone of Tehran’s resistance.
A month on, 16 countries have been dragged into the conflict, which reached as far as the Indian Ocean when a sneaky US submarine torpedoed and sank an Iranian warship that was returning from a naval exercise in India. The attack, the first such US submarine strike since World War II, killed nearly 90 Iranian sailors — an incident that hit global headlines in the second week of the war.
The war has also reopened the front in Lebanon, with clashes between Israel and Hezbollah leaving over 1,200 dead and hundreds of thousands displaced since March 2.
In Iran, over 3,300 people have been killed, including around 1,400 civilians, according to a US-based human rights agency.
IRAN SHOWS RESILIENCE
However, the Islamic Republic has not collapsed. It has proven to be much larger than any one individual. The second week saw Iran’s Assembly of Experts appoint Ayatollah Khamenei’s 56-year-old son Mojtaba as its new supreme leader. However, Mojtaba, who Iran claimed survived the February 28 attack, hasn’t been seen publicly since.
Mojtaba has only “issued” a lengthy written message in which he promised “revenge” and laid emphasis on blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil and gas passes. Several reports have said that Mojtaba was in a coma, while US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed he was likely disfigured.
So far, it appears that the IRGC and other military units are operating without any central command. On the diplomacy front, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and its Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf seem to be leading the charge.
DRAMATIC ESCALATION IN ‘OIL WAR’
The third week saw a dramatic escalation in the “oil war”, with tit-for-tat strikes on gasfields and energy facilities. It was the first time that facilities linked to the production of fossil fuel energy came under attack.
Israel pummeled Iran’s South Pars gasfield, the world’s largest, and the backbone of global LNG supplies. The gasfield also handles 80% of Iran’s domestic gas. Iran retaliated by attacking regional energy facilities, including Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG plant, and oil giant Aramco’s Samref refinery in Saudi Arabia.
The incident brought out the rift between Trump and Netanyahu in the open. Trump admitted that the US was clueless and publicly warned the Israeli Prime Minister against targeting Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure. Truth be told, there has been little conversation between Trump and Netanyahu in the past two weeks. It has triggered widespread speculation that Netanyahu might have been killed in Iranian strikes. But there has been no concrete evidence.
IRAN’S GRIP ON STRAIT OF HORMUZ
Throughout these four weeks, Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz has remained constant. Over the course of the war, Iran has turned the strait into a fortress with mines, sea drones, and Shahed UAVs. It has become ‘THE’ decisive factor in the war. And the world is bearing the cost.
Iran has now made deals with five “friendly countries”, including India, to allow safe transit. For “enemy tankers”, it is a no-go zone. For those in between, there is a ‘Tehran toll booth’ in place. Reports in foreign media claim that Iran was charging as high as $2 million (Rs 18 crore) to safely transit the strait.
So far, around nine India-flagged oil and LPG tankers have reached Indian shores via the strait. Around 22 Indian vessels are still waiting for clearance.
Behind it lies India’s delicate balancing act with all three countries involved in the conflict. The Narendra Modi government has refused to let any one partnership become a trap.
The waterway is crucial for India as around 50% of its crude oil imports come through Hormuz. Iran’s chokehold has seen India facing a squeeze in cooking-gas supplies over the past couple of weeks. It has led to panic-buying and has also forced some restaurants to shut down temporarily.
ENDGAME IN SIGHT?
Ending the war is not easy. A possible endgame emerged earlier this week after Trump paused strikes on Iran’s energy facilities for five days to negotiate a ceasefire and reopen Hormuz. He then extended the deadline to April 6, saying the talks were progressing — something Iran has denied. However, Tehran has engaged in backchannel negotiations, pitching US Vice President JD Vance as a possible interlocutor.
If negotiations fail, Trump may dramatically escalate the conflict to force Hormuz open. The mercurial US President has already ordered thousands of additional paratroopers and Marines into the region, raising the prospect of a ground invasion.
All eyes are on Iran’s ‘Crown Jewel’ – Kharg Island, Tehran’s economic lifeline that accounts for 90% of its oil exports. The US already bombed military sites on Kharg in mid-March. However, energy infrastructure was spared. US officials have indicated that Trump might put boots on the ground in Kharg to seize the island and pressure Iran to reopen Hormuz.
Will Trump’s military pressure have the desired effect on Iran? The next few days will give a clear indication in which way the war is heading.
