India’s stock market tumbled today, wiping out lakhs of crores in investor wealth, as crude oil prices turned volatile amid on-again, off-again talks over an Iran war ceasefire.
The benchmark Nifty 50 fell as much as 1.67%, or 389.25 points, to an intraday low of 22,917.20 points, even as the S&P BSE Sensex shed over 1,300 points. The selloff wiped out ₹8 crore in investor wealth by midday. Fifteen out of the 16 major sectoral indices clocked losses. The mid-cap and small-cap stocks, often the most sensitive to liquidity shifts and domestic sentiment, fell by 1.5% each.
While US President Donald Trump suggested talks were going on “very well” for an Iran war ceasefire, Tehran called Washington’s proposal as “one-sided and unfair”, noting that strikes against US and Israeli regional bases would continue. That, even as Trump signalled a pause on US attacks on Iran’s oil infrastructure well into April.
This geopolitical “tug-of-war” has kept markets in a state of high anxiety. Since the Iran war began on 28 February, both the Nifty 50 and Sensex have shed roughly 8.6% of their value.
“While markets swing between hope and fear with every war-related headline, the bigger picture is a fundamental shift in the geopolitical landscape,” Dhananjay Sinha, chief executive and co-head of institutional equities at Systematix Group, told Reuters. “The market is still under-appreciating this new reality.”
The primary concern for the Indian economy—the world’s fastest-growing but third-largest oil importer—is the sustained elevation of crude oil prices. Analysts warn that if Brent remains at or above $100 per barrel, compared to a 12-month average of $65, the fiscal consequences could be dire. According to them,
- India’s oil import bill could balloon to $291 billion, an incremental $105 billion over fiscal 2026 estimates.
- Raw material costs for non-financial companies could surge by 20%, far outstripping sales growth, eating into margins.
- The prospect of a sharper downward revision to corporate earnings than previously anticipated is gaining traction.
The India VIX, a measure of market volatility, jumped to 26.7 on Friday, hovering near its highest level since June 2024. The NSE Nifty 50 has swung wildly this week, oscillating between losses of 2.6% and gains of 2% in a truncated week.
Stocks in Focus Today
HDFC Bank: Fell 2.2% following news that SEBI has begun a preliminary review into the abrupt resignation of part-time chairman Atanu Chakraborty.
Reliance Industries: The index heavyweight dropped 2.5%, tracking the broader weakness in energy and refining margins.
Larsen & Toubro: The infrastructure giant slid 2.5% on concerns over project execution costs amid rising commodity prices.
IT stocks: Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. and Wipro Ltd. were among the top gainers on the Nifty 50.
“The correction since the war began has brought down Nifty valuations to fair levels. Nifty is now trading at about 19 times, which is lower than the last 10-year average of 22.4 times,” V.K. Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments Ltd., told Hindustan Times over email.
“But if India’s macros take a hit due to this energy crisis, valuations may again decline factoring-in the feared hit to earnings growth in FY27.”
