What happens if ‘Gate of Tears’ is blocked too? After Hormuz, Strait of Mandab is in the red | Explained

Iran is collecting a passage fee in Chinese yuan, yet these tolled permissions are not enough to compensate for the losses. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has assessed this as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.

There is still a second waterway; on the other, western side of the Arabian peninsula, connecting the Red Sea with the ocean.

It’s called the Bab al-Mandab, or the Strait of Mandab. (see map below)

At first, this strait and the Yanbu port of Saudi Arabia made news last week, as a probable alternative route for Saudi Arabian oil supplies.

This week, the Bab al-Mandab (also spelt Bab-el-Mandeb) moved more sharply into focus, after a senior leader of the the Houthi group, the Iran-backed militia that controls large parts of Yemen, said on Thursday that they are “fully militarily ready with all options”.

Iran’s Tasnim news agency also carried a warning from an unnamed military source that Tehran is capable of creating a “completely credible threat” against the Mandab route. “If the Americans want to think of a solution for the Strait of Hormuz with stupid measures, they should be careful not to add another strait to their problems,” the news agency quoted an unnamed Iranian official as saying.

Brent crude rates briefly touched $120 a barrel, up 40% from before the war started. Kuwait Petroleum Corp CEO Sheikh Nawaf al-Sabah estimated that it would take Gulf producers three to four months to restore full output when the war ends. That was until the end of last week.

A lot has happened since Monday, when Trump spoke of holding “productive” talks with Iran. By Thursday, March 26, he went back to issuing threats; and Iran remains steadfast in its refusal of a 15-point American ceasefire plan. It wants war damages instead. Plus, complete control of the Hormuz Strait.

Pakistan and Turkey are mediating to end the conflict, but the needle has not moved much. Israeli and US militaries continue to attack Iran, and Iran continues to hit back. No one is quite sure what Trump would say, or order, next.

The Red Sea is essentially a 2,300-km-long water body wedged between the northeastern coast of Africa on one side and the Arabian peninsula on the other. The Houthis control large parts of Yemen that is part of the Arabian peninsula.

At the northern tip of the Red Sea sits the Suez Canal, Egypt’s man-made passage connecting the Red Sea to the Mediterranean up north.

At the southern end lies the Mandab strait. This strait is between Yemen on the Arabian peninsula, and Djibouti and Eritrea on the African side. Its Arabic name means ‘Gate of Tears’, probably because of navigation through it being treacherous for centuries. The Strait of Hormuz is slightly wider, and has a happier name — the word Hormuz often linked to a Persian empire or ancient word for God.

As for Mandab, the Gate of Tears, it’s the route that knits together the oil economies of the Gulf region with the markets of Europe and Asia.

Here’s how that works:

In turn, supplies of products from Europe travel down via the Suez, into the Red Sea, and then through the Mandab route to the rest of the world in the south. That is likely to be affected.

With the Hormuz Strait closed, Gulf producers like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE and Iraq lost their primary export channel.

The Mandab route is now their only remaining way to world markets. Insurance premiums have risen to four or five times pre-conflict levels, Bloomberg has reported. Yet, Mandab cannot quite substitute Hormuz.

Saudi national oil company Aramco shipped 7.2 million barrels a day of crude in February from the Hormuz side. The pipeline for the Yanbu port, however, can carry only 5 million barrels a day.

Worse, the journey from Yanbu to Asia via the Mandab strait is longer. The Saudis have indeed started using Yanbu more since the war, making Mandab the world’s major functioning oil route. Now if that closes, ships will have to reroute even longer, away from both Mandab and Hormuz, around the entire African continent.

As for the current war, the Houthis have so far not been in action.

“There are some theories; one says the Iranians are holding off Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping in reserve, as part of strategic patience,” International Crisis Group analyst Michael Hanna told a news agency.

Abdul Malik al-Houthi, leader of the militant group, said on Thursday, “As the people of Yemen, we repay loyalty with loyalty.” He did not specify what kind of military action his movement might undertake. “Our position is clear and explicit against America and Israel, and we harbour no hostile intentions toward any Muslim country,” he said, in an apparent reference to countries in the Gulf.

The Iranian military anyway has long-range missiles theoretically capable of reaching the Red Sea and Mandab.

If the Houthis were to block Mandab, they mostly disrupt Saudi Arabia’s ability to bypass Hormuz for oil shipments. Some ocean carriers are already opting for the far longer voyage around the tip of Africa, reports said.

But this does not mean a total halt to shipping; it could just badly squeeze supplies and drive prices further up.

Dimitris Maniatis, CEO of the Greek company Maritime Risk Services or MARISK, told German broadcaster DW, “Nobody wants to put their crews and their ships in harm’s way. However, there are companies, there are charters, and there are shipowners that are happy to take this risk.”

He added, “Shipping is an industry by which people make money. When there is chaos, more money is to be made.” Someone has to pay that money. And it usually hits the final consumer too.