Former MI6 boss Alex Younger has claimed that Iran currently has the upper hand in its ongoing conflict with the United States.
According to The Economist, Younger said that while he regrets making these remarks, given the violence and brutality of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) that several MI6 officers faced, the US did “underestimate the task”. He added that, in his view, Washington lost the initiative to Tehran almost two weeks ago.
How does Iran have an upper hand?
Elaborating further, the former MI6 boss said that the Islamic Republic regime has been more resilient than anyone would have expected. He said that the country took some “good decisions” as early as last June, when they dispersed military capabilities and delegated the authority for the use of those weapons, which has given them significant extra resilience against the airstrikes launched by the US and Israel.
According to Younger, the Islamic Republic has embarked on what he called “horizontal escalation”, which means they are launching rockets at anyone that is within range. He added that this move is now putting a direct price on the US.
Shedding light on how Tehran has understood the importance of the energy war, the former boss of the UK’s intelligence agency said that they have held the Straits at threat and have somehow globalised the conflict, which has provided them with some weapons. Younger suggests that the Islamic Republic has played the illusion of having a “weak hand” pretty well.
Iran’s war of existence vs Trump’s war of choice
Another reason why Tehran seems to be having the upper hand is that US President Donald Trump made some remarks, confirming what the Islamic Republic knew already, which is that the country is in a civilisational war or a war of existence, according to Younger. He added that Trump made it very clear that he wants to see them up “against the wall”. On the other hand, Washington has embarked on a war of choice. The fact that Tehran is fighting for its existence has imbued it with more staying power than the US.
US-Iran war
Younger’s remarks shed light on how the conflict has panned out in the Middle East. In the three-week-long war, the US and Israel killed several of the top Iranian leaders, including the country’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and others. However, as of earlier this week, Trump announced a pause in the fighting, citing “very good and productive talks” with Tehran, a claim which the Islamic Republic has denied.
On Tuesday, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif offered Islamabad as a possible venue for US-Iran peace talks, highlighting its role as a chief mediator. While there has been no confirmation yet, Trump did share a screenshot of Sharif’s tweet on his Truth Social account.
What remains to be seen is how the conflict will unfold. Will Iran and the US agree to hold negotiations, and will there be a resolution? Will Tehran agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and dispel fears stoked in the global energy markets, or will the conflict escalate further?
