Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni conceded defeat in a national referendum to overhaul Italy’s judicial system, which has become a vote on the leader herself.
About 54.1% of Italians voted “No,” rejecting Meloni’s reform, according the Italy interior ministry, with 78% of the ballots counted. About 45.9% voted “Yes.”
The result constitutes Meloni’s biggest setback since rising to power in late 2022, marking her first loss in a nationwide electoral contest. It risks weakening her grip on power even as she prepares to run in a general election.
“We will continue to go on as we have always done, with the same responsibility, determination and respect for Italy,” Meloni said in an address posted to social media. “It remains a regret for a missed opportunity to modernize Italy.”
The loss would “cast doubt over her reelection prospects in 2027,” according to Federico Santi, a senior analyst for Europe at Eurasia group. “The loss could also doom her broader constitutional reform ambitions, including plans to bolster the prime minister’s powers.”
Italian bonds held their gains over safer German debt, leaving the spread six basis points lower at 86 basis points. The gap widened to more than one percentage point earlier amid sharp swings in bets on European Central Bank interest rates tied to the conflict in the Middle East.
The referendum was intended to restructure how Italy trains and oversees judges and prosecutors, creating two separate career tracks and establishing a new disciplinary court.
Meloni and her allies argued the changes would make the system fairer, reducing internal politicization. Opponents countered that the overhaul would actually weaken judicial independence and subject the courts to more government control.
“I know in person how painful it is to lose a constitutional referendum,” former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi said, according to quotes published by Corriere. “When a leader loses their magic touch, everyone starts to doubt.”
The loss threatens to expose tensions within the country’s governing coalition — formed by Meloni’s right-wing Brothers of Italy party, the nationalist League and the center-right Forza Italia — just as energy costs spiral and Italians’ living standards stagnate.
Domestic growth also remains low and a mammoth public debt load is compressing Meloni’s room for fiscal intervention.
National referendums have felled previous Italian leaders, even if they are only proposing technical changes.
In 2016, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi resigned hours after voters roundly rejected constitutional changes he had tied to his political survival. The same has been true elsewhere — UK leader David Cameron didn’t survive his decision to allow a national vote on whether to leave the European Union.
Meloni initially tried not to link her political fortunes to the judicial changes. But with the polls tight in recent weeks, she expended political capital encouraging people to vote “Yes.”
–With assistance from James Hirai.
(Updates with Meloni’s concession in the first paragraph.)
More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com
©2026 Bloomberg L.P.
