Mojtaba Khamenei ascended to the position of Iran’s Supreme Leader on March 9, following the death of his father in a US-Israeli airstrike on February 28. However, the new Supreme Leader is yet to make a public appearance. His first public statement on March 12 as well as his Nowruz message on March 20 were read out by the state media, further deepening the mystery about his whereabouts.
As per the latest Israeli and US media reports, the new Supreme Leader is alive but not in real control of his country. Sources told Jerusalem Post that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could be holding effective power in Iran while Mojtaba is unable to fully exert his authority over the political apparatus.
The Israeli publication quoted US-Israeli intelligence sources as saying that Mojtaba remains physically capable of carrying out at least some functions, despite being injured in the February 28 airstrike that killed his father, Ali Khamenei.
“We don’t think the Iranians would have gone through all this trouble to choose a dead guy as the supreme leader. At the same time, we have no proof that he is taking the helm,” a US official told Axios.
The continued absence of Mojtaba, according to an Axios report, has been a matter of discussion during President Donald Trump’s intelligence briefings. The report also quoted an official as saying that the US national security team is still assessing who is in charge in Tehran.
Iran experts like Raz Zimmt of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv told Axios that the new Supreme Leader is unlikely to make any public appearance due to the ongoing security situation. “His injury does not even allow him to release a recorded video in order not to expose to the public the severity of his condition,” Zimmt told the US publication.
In his first-ever public statement as the Supreme Leader on March 12, which was read by a TV news presenter, Mojtaba outlined a hardline stance on the United States and the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing conflict in the Gulf region. He also warned that Iran would avenge the blood of its martyrs and keep the Strait of Hormuz closed.
On March 20, the Persian New Year, the newly-appointed Supreme Leader praised the steadfastness of the Iranian people in yet another written statement released to the state media. On the same day, the Iranian state media released an undated video of Mojtaba teaching religious science at a seminary.
Mojtaba’s absence from public view coincides with the continued elimination of top Iranian officials by Israel. Ali Larijani, the man tasked with steering Iran’s security strategy and who has been Tehran’s face amid the conflict, was killed in Israeli strikes on March 17. Another top commander, Gholamreza Soleimani, was killed in Israeli airstrikes on March 16.
However, foreign minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera that Iran would continue to fight despite losing many of its top leaders. “The presence or absence of a single individual does not affect Iran’s political and economic structure,” Araghchi told Qatari news channel.
Drawing a parallel with the death of the former Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, on February 28, Araghchi added, “Even the (Supreme) Leader was martyred, yet the system continued its work.”
Since the war began on February 28, Iranian state media has put the death toll at 1,270 people. Following the Israeli-US strikes on Iran, Tehran expanded the theatre by hitting US bases in the Middle East.
Later, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz for shipping, threatening to attack ships that pass through the chokepoint. The threat of Iranian attacks has kept most ships from getting through the strait, which serves as the conduit for around a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, threatening a global energy shock.
