US President Donald Trump’s war against Iran seems confounding, defined by contradictory remarks, an improvisational strategy, and a tolerance for risk that would paralyse a traditional commander-in-chief. But as my friend Jeffrey Sonnenfeld argues in his new book, Trump’s Ten Commandments, we should not be surprised. Trump’s approach reflects the consistent execution of a playbook he has relied on for decades.
Sonnenfeld’s most important advice to Prime Minister Narendra Modi is to internalise this playbook, because the same patterns driving the recent US strikes on Kharg Island will shape the next phase of Indo-US trade and relations.
The insight, shaped by decades of observing Trump across business, media, and politics, is that his behaviour is predictable. Whether in real estate, the White House, or now in Iran, he returns to the same methods again and again.
Sonnenfeld has known Trump since the early days of The Apprentice, when he publicly challenged the show for distorting what leadership entails. He was later offered the presidency of Trump University, an offer he declined. Over the past 30 years, I have watched Sonnenfeld build the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute into what is effectively the Davos of the US, only more serious and far less performative. At these gatherings, Fortune 500 CEOs, cabinet officials, and heads of State engage in unscripted discussions about power and crisis. Sonnenfeld has had a complex relationship with Trump, at times charmed by him and at other times organising resistance to his excesses. That combination gives his analysis unusual credibility.
The book describes a set of recurring “commandments” that define Trump’s operating style: Power is centralised, with decisions flowing through a tight inner circle rather than institutional processes; he opens with a “punch in the face,” using maximal force to reset the baseline and seize psychological advantage; he fragments alliances and prefers to deal with isolated counterparts rather than coordinated blocs; and he deploys what he calls a “wall of sound,” a steady stream of statements and reversals that overwhelm opponents and keep them reacting rather than planning. This approach is not confined to war; it is Trump’s negotiating DNA.
Trump moves from one arena to another, carrying momentum forward. Venezuela gave way to Iran, and even as that conflict unfolds, attention is already shifting again, with Cuba emerging as another point of pressure. Each confrontation sets up the next. Once he declares success, he looks for a new contest where he can assert control and claim a visible outcome.
Trade will likely be that contest, with India now in the crosshairs.
Just weeks ago, New Delhi and Washington outlined an interim framework under which the US would moderate tariffs in exchange for India cutting back on Russian oil purchases. Then the ground shifted as the US Supreme Court curtailed the legal basis for key tariffs. One would expect a pause, but not with Trump. He introduced a new global tariff under different authority and launched fresh Section 301 investigations into “unfair manufacturing” and excess capacity, including against India.
Then Iran disrupted the equation. To stabilise markets, Washington granted a temporary 30-day waiver allowing India to resume purchases of Russian oil.
The reversal does not change the pressure. Trade is being tied more directly to geopolitical alignment, and energy policy is becoming an instrument of leverage. This follows the pattern Sonnenfeld describes: Pressure is applied, expectations are reset, and just as counterparts begin to adjust, the frame changes again, keeping negotiations fluid and counterparts off balance. The Section 301 action keeps India on the defensive just as an agreement appears within reach, while the broader framing seeks a visible outcome that can be presented as decisive. Trump’s opening moves are designed to shape perception and extract concessions, not to define final terms.
As Sonnenfeld explains, leaders who negotiate at that stage often concede more than necessary because they anchor themselves to a baseline that was never intended to hold; India should avoid that mistake. His advice is simple: Be patient and do not rush into agreements.
Modi has already demonstrated good faith through adjustments in energy sourcing and alignment with western supply-chain priorities. That credibility is established and does not need to be reinforced through premature concessions tied to a shifting framework. India’s leverage is stronger than it was at the outset; its role in global supply chains has expanded, its technological capabilities have deepened, and its partnerships with Europe signal that it does not negotiate in isolation. These are bargaining instruments that should be used deliberately.
Trump seeks visible victories, which creates room to separate substance from optics for those who recognise the distinction. The war in Iran is not separate from what comes next; it shows how he sets the stage, dominates the narrative, and forces reactions before others can coordinate.
That the next phase will be economic, with tariffs at the centre. The pressure will be sharper and the demands broader, with trade, energy, and geopolitical alignment increasingly intertwined. India should be ready, but not rushed. By waiting for the current turbulence to settle, observing how US positions evolve across multiple fronts, and returning to the table with clarity about leverage and intent, it can secure terms that reflect its true weight.
These are the central lessons of Sonnenfeld’s book for policymakers, business leaders, and negotiators. Understand who you are negotiating with, anticipate rather than react, and negotiate from informed strength.
Vivek Wadhwa is CEO, Vionix Biosciences. The views expressed are personal
